What is Moonshot Thinking?
Moonshot Thinking is the ability to formulate radically ambitious goals that are ten times better than what exists today, so that the team thinks far beyond incremental improvement.
DEFINITION
Moonshot Thinking describes the willingness and ability to formulate goals that are not ten per cent better than today, but ten times better: so-called 10x goals. The term comes from NASA’s Apollo programme and became known as a working principle through Google X, Alphabet’s moonshot laboratory. The idea behind it: a ten per cent better goal forces the same path, only more efficiently. A ten times better goal forces you to fundamentally question the path. That leads to different solutions, different experiments, and different resource use. Moonshot Thinking only works in a psychologically safe environment where failure is allowed. Anyone punished for a poor result will choose safe goals. The opposite term is Roofshot Thinking: incremental, easily achievable goals. Both have their place: moonshots for exploration, roofshots for exploitation. Moonshot Thinking is not wishful thinking. It starts with a real, urgent problem and then searches for radically different solution approaches.
CONNECTIONS
Leadership
Leaders create the conditions under which Moonshot Thinking becomes possible: through psychological safety, allowing failure, and actively asking “What if the outcome were ten times better?”
Artificial Intelligence
Moonshot Thinking is decisive in the AI context. Anyone who only asks “How do we automate this step?” thinks in roofshots. Anyone who asks “How do we change our entire service model with AI?” thinks in moonshot mode.
Project Management
Classical project management optimises existing processes. Moonshot Thinking asks whether the process is necessary at all. It adds an innovation dimension to the project portfolio.
KEY POINTS
- Moonshot Thinking aims for 10x improvements, not ten per cent.
- It became known through Google X as an innovation principle.
- 10x goals force different solution approaches than incremental goals.
- Psychological safety is a prerequisite for Moonshot Thinking to work.
- Moonshot and Roofshot complement each other: exploration vs. exploitation.
EXAMPLE
An established company asks: “How do we improve our customer communication by ten per cent?” Answer: faster emails. The same question as a moonshot: “What would need to happen for our customers never to have to wait at all?” Answer: autonomous AI answers enquiries in real time, before they are even asked. The second question leads to a completely different thinking and technology path.
MISCONCEPTIONS
Is Moonshot Thinking only for large tech corporations?
No. The principle works in any organisation willing to fundamentally question the status quo. Small teams can also trigger radical innovation with 10x questions.
Are moonshots always successful?
No. Moonshots often fail. That is factored in. The goal is not a guaranteed solution, but a fundamental learning leap. Even a failed moonshot produces more valuable insights than a successful roofshot.